This Is Not Just Marketing, Master’s Thesis
An exploratory quantitative study testing whether Alternate Reality Game (ARG) marketing campaigns actually drive audience engagement and box office results in independent horror film, or whether their apparent success comes down to something else entirely.
Summary
This thesis investigates whether Alternate Reality Game (ARG) marketing campaigns, like the ones behind horror hits Obsession and Backrooms, actually drive measurable audience engagement and box office results for independent films, or whether their apparent success is really down to something else entirely. Using statistical analysis across 17 independent horror films, the study tests this question directly, producing the first quantitative evidence in a field that has so far relied almost entirely on individual case studies.
Challenge & Role
ARG marketing (immersive, in-character campaigns that blur fiction and reality) has produced some spectacular commercial wins in independent horror, but no one had ever tested whether these campaigns actually caused that success, or whether other factors explained it instead. As the sole researcher, independently designed the study, built the dataset, ran the statistical analysis, and wrote the full thesis, including identifying the research gap, defining the methodology, sourcing and compiling the data from public archives, and interpreting the results against five theoretical frameworks.
Key Factors
- The first known quantitative study to test ARG campaign presence as a predictor of audience outcomes, rather than relying on individual case studies
- Built an original dataset from scratch, cross-referencing box office databases, production budgets, and Reddit engagement archives for 17 films
- Ran statistical hypothesis testing (ANCOVA) using IBM SPSS, with production budget controlled as a covariate
- Identified that production budget, not ARG presence, was the dominant predictor of both outcomes, a finding that runs against the popular industry narrative
- Uncovered a notable exception within the data: films combining an internet-native ARG with a director who already had a large online following dramatically outperformed what budget alone would predict
- Delivered five concrete, evidence-based recommendations for independent filmmakers considering ARG marketing
Solution & Outcome
The study compared 17 independent horror films released between 2009 and 2026, split between those with a documented ARG campaign and those without, measuring two outcomes: how much pre-release conversation each film generated on Reddit, and how much it earned on its opening weekend. Production budget was factored in as a control, since bigger-budget films naturally attract more attention and wider release regardless of their marketing tactics.
The results were clear: once budget was accounted for, ARG campaigns showed no statistically significant effect on either outcome. Budget alone explained a large share of the variation in both measures, far more than whether a film had run an ARG campaign at all.
But the most interesting finding sat outside the main statistical result. Two films, Obsession and Backrooms, wildly exceeded what their budgets would predict, and both shared a specific pattern: an internet-native ARG campaign (built on Reddit, TikTok and YouTube, where the audience already spent their time) combined with a director who already had a large, loyal online following. This suggested that ARG marketing isn’t a reliable tool on its own, but can become a powerful amplifier when paired with an existing digital community.
The thesis closes with practical, evidence-grounded recommendations for independent filmmakers: build distribution infrastructure first, design ARG campaigns for the platforms an audience already uses, and build an online following before relying on an ARG to create one.
Tools & Skills Used
Quantitative research design ✦ Statistical analysis (ANCOVA, IBM SPSS) ✦ Data collection & sourcing ✦ Academic writing ✦ Literature review ✦ Research methodology
